Local calibration of flexible pavement performance models in michigan

Syed Waqar Haider, Wouter C. Brink, Neeraj Buch

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

The performance prediction models in the Pavement-ME are nationally calibrated using in-service pavement material properties, pavement structure, climate and truck loading conditions, and performance data obtained from the Long Term Pavement Performance program. Generally, the nationally calibrated models may not be accurate if the inputs and performance data used to calibrate do not represent a state’s local conditions and practices. Therefore, each state highway agency (SHA) should evaluate the nationally calibrated performance models to determine the adequacy of predicted field performance before implementing the new M-E design procedure. If the predictions are not satisfactory, local calibration of the Pavement-ME performance models is recommended to improve the performance prediction capabilities reflecting the unique field conditions and design practices. The commonly used calibration technique such as split sampling does not necessarily provide adequate results, especially with small sample sizes. Consequently, there is a need to employ statistical methodologies that are more efficient and robust for model calibrations given the data related challenges encountered by SHAs. The bootstrap is a nonparametric and robust resampling technique for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of a statistic. The main advantage of resampling methodologies like bootstrapping includes estimation of a parameter without making distribution assumptions. This paper presents the use of resampling techniques to locally calibrate the flexible pavement performance models and how the locally calibrated Pavement-ME models improved the performance prediction accuracy. The results of the local calibration show that the validation standard error and bias obtained from bootstrapping were much lower than other resampling techniques. In addition, the validation statistics were similar to that of the model calibration, which indicates robustness of the local model coefficients. The reliability equations after local calibration are a better representation of measured pavement performance in Michigan.

LanguageEnglish (US)
Pages986-997
Number of pages12
JournalCanadian Journal of Civil Engineering
Volume43
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 28 2016

Profile

pavement
Pavements
Calibration
calibration
bootstrapping
prediction
Statistics
methodology
confidence interval
Trucks
Materials properties
Sampling
road
sampling
climate

Keywords

  • Bootstrapping
  • Fatigue cracking
  • IRI
  • Jackknifing
  • Local calibrations
  • Rutting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Environmental Science(all)

Cite this

Local calibration of flexible pavement performance models in michigan. / Haider, Syed Waqar; Brink, Wouter C.; Buch, Neeraj.

In: Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 43, No. 11, 28.09.2016, p. 986-997.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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